A little bit of history

It has been suggested that these forums constitute a 'living, breathing, collective consciousness' that embodies the mysteries of Townsend Brown's life. This forum provieds a space where we can try to identify all the unifying themes and make all the necessary connections among widely divergent elements that comprise the Parallel Universe of T. Townsend Brown.

A little bit of history

Postby LongboardLOVELY » Sun Sep 28, 2008 5:49 am

My best late night greetings too all of you!

It has been a long time since I have posted anything. Mostly I have been enjoying sitting on the bench, watching the scenery and reading....

And lately, I have learned a few things that have direct ties to a previous discussion a long time ago, and I would like to mark a trail to see where it goes.

I was re-reading the forum discussions about Ch 31, The Intrepid.
grinder wrote:
One thing I read said that he set up the model for the system that became our CIA. Is that right?

Then Paul wrote:
The evidence seems to support that claim. Stephenson had a hand in Roosevelt's selection of William "Wild Bill Donovan" to form the Office of Special Services (OSS) in World War II, and OSS was pretty much the precursor to the Central Intelligence Agency. It went through a couple of incarnations before the NSA (National Security Act) was enacted, creating the CIA in 1947, but the nuts and bolts of it was what was left over from the old OSS.

And that he was a great friend to Winston Churchill?

Churchill was the one who dubbed him "Intrepid," and -- I don't have the source material in front of me right this minute so I could be misquoting -- when Stephenson was knighted, Churchill said something to the effect that "this one is very dear to me." So, yeah, they wuz buds.

And that he was like the go between FDR and Chruchill during the war And ran a "domestic intelligence service" inside the United States.....

It was called "British Security Coordination" (BSC) and it was based in Rockefeller Center in NYC and yes, it was a foreign espionage operation conducted on American soil with the full knowledge of the President, but...


Add to that quote all of our discussions about submarines and the war.....

Anyways, a new subject that is really an old subject that we really didn't elaborate on has surfaced around me, and I wanted to bring it up before the fog lifts and the thought is gone.

As many of you know, I am in a MBA program. One of the classes that I am in right now is called Management Science. Other names for it are Operations Research or Decision Analysis. the first day of class we watched a short video clip about the history of ORMS (Operations Reserach and Management Science). Bear with me as I need to include a bit of history to get to my point.

Operational Research in Europe, is an interdisciplinary branch of applied mathematics and formal science that uses methods such as mathematical modeling, statistics, and algorithms to arrive at optimal or near optimal solutions to complex problems. Through Operational Research (OR) – the scientific scrutiny of new weapons, their deployment and relative efficiency – scientists also influenced how warfare itself was conducted. This new scientific field emerged in the UK, where it helped to tighten the defense against the Luftwaffe. It quickly spread to other aspects of the military machine, improving both antisubmarine campaigns and bombing strategy.

According to the video, the science of ORMS had its origins in the British Navy during WWII. The military intelligence units realized the potential benefit of using this new branch of decision analysis in naval warfare and implemented its use. They put together teams of mathematicians/physicists/engineers to build a brand new department in military intelligence warfare. The focus of the original ORMS team was on Naval warfare against German Submarines. During the War, Operations Research doubled the success rate of aerial attacks on submarines by recommending a shallower detonation setting on the depth charges being dropped by aircraft. The depth charges had previously been set to detonate at the depth where the shock of the explosion would be most efficiently transferred through the water, but submarines were unable to reach that depth in the limited time available after being spotted by the aircraft. Shallower detonation depth settings reduced the distance of the detonation from the submarine: a close detonation with lower shock transmission efficiency was more destructive than a more distant detonation with better transmission.

SO, then the video talked about how after the war, ORMS became widely used in furthering Radar research, Information Technology, and eventually Satellite Technology.

When the video ended, the professor got up and talked about how if we were to turn off all linear/integer programming today, the world would just stop, and everything would be in chaos, especially since the world is built around ORMS in Satellite technology.

MY POINT:
As I was thinking about the subject of Stephenson, and the BSC, and Brown's history with submarines, I wondered to what extent he and T. Brown were involved in the initial aspects of developing the ORMS Naval Weapons team, and to what extent these developments wound up in the NRO.

I would love to hear from people who know much more than I do about ORMS, its origins, and its link to modern day "technology". It's a fascinating subject, and I know I will probably spend only a minutia in the subject before moving on.

All my best,

LongboardLOVELY

Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction. ~ Albert Einstein
LongboardLOVELY
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Re: A little bit of history

Postby Mark Culpepper » Tue Oct 07, 2008 1:16 pm

Longboard! How is it that I just now saw this post when it was dated in September? I must be more asleep at the wheel than I thought,

I have many comments on the ORM situation but don't have the time right now to get into it so I am just going to note this discussion with one of those red flags and agree with you that Einsteins comment here has much value today.

"Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction. ~ Albert Einstein

Linda Brown just mentioned "moving toward the positive" and I am getting one of those odd tingling type feelings now reading these words, after I guess being called to them. Have you been there all along and I just have been overlooking you? So strange! MarkC
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Re: A little bit of history

Postby Radomir » Wed Oct 08, 2008 1:43 am

I don't know a thing about ORMS but thank you for raising this fascinating topic in such a thorough fashion. It makes sense that TTB would at least have been exposed to this during his work on various projects--whether or not he helped to develop or refine the approach. Looking forward to the discussion that evolves.

Also, I've never seen that quote from Einstein, quite well said.

Best,
R.
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Zzzzzz

Postby Paul S. » Wed Oct 08, 2008 4:07 pm

Mark Culpepper wrote:Longboard! How is it that I just now saw this post when it was dated in September? I must be more asleep at the wheel than I thought,


No, actually, Mark, I'm the one who's been asleep at the wheel. Since I finished my read-through and editing (as opposed to serious re-writing, which still looms large...) over the summer, I'd gotten out of the habit of checking the moderation panel of the forums. I don't get any kind of notification when there is a new post pending in the moderated sections, I have to remember to check manually.

Longboard's post was actually put in the moderation queue about a week ago, but it was during September, and now it's October. It only SEEMS like a month has passed.

--PS
Paul Schatzkin
aka "The Perfesser"
"At some point we have to deal with the facts, not what we want to believe is true." -- Jack Bauer
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Re: A little bit of history

Postby Rose » Wed Oct 08, 2008 5:06 pm

It's lovely to see you, Lovely. I'm glad you are enjoying the MBA program. Here are my own thoughts on ORMS...

ORMS is an applied statistical science first made possible by the "advanced computing capability" of the early machines with tiny memories and infinite patience in progressing the variables of linear algorithms.

Statistical models are based on assumptions derived from experts who can describe the actions/reactions of the physical world accurately. I see Townsend being one of those experts over and over again, throughout his life.

Robert Macnamara, Secretary of Defense under JFK, was a very strong advocate for the applications of scientific management tools in the operations of the department. And as the DoD goes, so goes industry...

The most recent evolutions of ORMS include data mining and nonlinear models. Spreadsheet software makes it possible to run large models on any pc, so modeling techniques are are used in every walk of commerce and government.
Green graduate students are churning out answers to major policy questions
on thousands of campuses right now...

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Re: A little bit of history

Postby LongboardLOVELY » Wed Oct 15, 2008 3:16 pm

Rose wrote:It's lovely to see you, Lovely. I'm glad you are enjoying the MBA program.
Ditto. I have heard of you, and would like nothing more than an afternoon of tea/coffee and good conversation.

Here are my own thoughts on ORMS...
Oh good! Yeah! :D

ORMS is an applied statistical science first made possible by the "advanced computing capability" of the early machines with tiny memories and infinite patience in progressing the variables of linear algorithms.

Statistical models are based on assumptions derived from experts who can describe the actions/reactions of the physical world accurately. I see Townsend being one of those experts over and over again, throughout his life.


"Actions/Reactions" ?
I noticed you didn't say "I could see".... Would you be willing to elaborate a little on Brown's expertise in this area of study?
Also, with your background, you may know a bit more about ORMS development in WWII. Would you elaborate a bit more on that as well?

Robert Macnamara, Secretary of Defense under JFK, was a very strong advocate for the applications of scientific management tools in the operations of the department. And as the DoD goes, so goes industry...


Is that the same Robert Macnamara who was President of the IBRD (aka World Bank) for 13 years? If so, I recall a speech he made years ago which was admirable (and memorable) ~ His speech made the case that peace and stability in the world depended far less on armament levels than on raising the standards of life of the poorer two-thirds of the world.

The most recent evolutions of ORMS include data mining and nonlinear models. Spreadsheet software makes it possible to run large models on any pc, so modeling techniques are are used in every walk of commerce and government.
Green graduate students are churning out answers to major policy questions
on thousands of campuses right now...

rose


What about ORMS in Satellite Technology? Any input?

Much obliged.....

LongboardLOVELY

Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction. ~ Albert Einstein
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Re: A little bit of history

Postby Rose » Wed Oct 22, 2008 5:05 pm

If you find an online photo of the ENIAC computer, you will find a picture of the first "modern" computer,, created to calculate firepower/trajectories Young officer Grace Hopper is the person who discovered that dead moths (bugs) would make it malfunction. Located in Philadelphia during WWII, it was said that when ENIAC power up, all the lights in the surrounding homes would go dim.

Kitselman is the one who wrote that Townsend had a great gift for understanding the physical world, but when I say I see, I only mean that is one of the images of him that I hold. He was able, somehow to inspire that understanding in mathmeticians, to the degree that they could model that understanding. ENIAC would then have been used to perform the linear progressions of such models.

As for ORMS and Satellite...I have heard that the first satellite took much longer to complete its orbit than all of the calculations showed it should. That would have been cause for great consternation and confusion at many levels I wonder where TTB was and what he was thinking during that time?

rose
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Re: A little bit of history

Postby amalie » Thu Oct 23, 2008 6:18 pm

Dear Lovely , Rose and all ,

I just caught a glimpse of your wonderful discussion about OR's and AI

I have been thinking about all of this for the past four years, although I did not find much out about the programs that Lovely has been involved with .

DOD does a lot of this sort of research and they have some very advanced models.

The trouble with these sorts of tech structures is that they need social structures to function within. They become applicable when they have a function, the function has to be a needed one .

I am going away on Monday for a week , I will get back later ...

Amalie
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Re: A little bit of history

Postby LongboardLOVELY » Sat Oct 25, 2008 5:02 am

Mark Culpepper wrote:Longboard! How is it that I just now saw this post when it was dated in September? I must be more asleep at the wheel than I thought,

I have many comments on the ORM situation but don't have the time right now to get into it so I am just going to note this discussion with one of those red flags and agree with you that Einsteins comment here has much value today.

......

Linda Brown just mentioned "moving toward the positive" and I am getting one of those odd tingling type feelings now reading these words, after I guess being called to them. Have you been there all along and I just have been overlooking you? So strange! MarkC



So, Mark, what are your many comments?

Longboardlovely

Any fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage - to move in the opposite direction. ~ Albert Einstein
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Re: A little bit of history

Postby Rose » Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:20 pm

I thought I had a post in this que and figured Paul would release it when he got around to it. I'm sure I typed one out, but must have forgotten to post it. If I get the energy to recreate it, I will post it to the Random Ideas thread.

rose
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